|
Date: September 15, 2010
Time: 11:30 -
1:00
Location:
Technomics,Inc.
Address:
201 12th Street South
Crystal Gatway North, East Tower, Sixth Floor
Arlington, VA
Presenters:
Christopher Mehl of Omnitech Solutions, Inc., and Mike Popp of NAVAIR 4.2
Topic:
Probability Bounds Analysis for S-Curves
Abstract:
"After
years of developing point estimates analysts knew were uncertain, the
estimating and acquisition community has embraced the concept of viewing a
cost estimate as a potential distribution of cost represented by a
cumulative distribution function (CDF), commonly called the S-Curve.
Unfortunately, the very thing the S-Curve was intended to counter - the
implication of preciseness inherent in a point estimate - has become a
preciseness issue about percentile values and levels of risk. Decision
makers, for example, have come to view the 50th percentile as an absolute,
and wonder why the number previously thought to be the 50th
percentile becomes the 30th percentile when the estimate is updated. While
there are many reasons numbers change, part of the error is inherent in the
way the S-Curve is developed. Ideally, all input distributions in a cost
estimate would be derived from reliable data, and would have known shape and
parameter values. In reality, many inputs to an estimate are based on
expert opinion and data of unknown relevance, making the distributions for
these inputs uncertain. Understanding this, we can treat the output CDF as
an empirical distribution function (EDF), and quantify the associated "type
2," or epistemic, uncertainty. Utilizing Kolmogorov-Smirnoff and
non-parametric quantile bounds, a "P-Box" is developed from which an analyst
can now define a range of costs associated with specific levels of risk, or
ranges in risk associated with specific costs."
Speaker Bio:
Dr. Christopher Mehl is a senior mathematician for Omnitech Solutions, Inc.,
supporting the NAVAIR 4.2 Cost Department. He has more than 11 years
experience performing strategic research, technical and quantitative
analysis in the academic, commercial and government sectors, and has applied
a wide variety of mathematical techniques to diverse problems in the
intelligence and defense communities. He has received the DIA Meritorious
Civilian Service Medal, DIA Civilian Expeditionary Medal, and the Joint
Civilian Service Commendation Award for service in Iraq. He holds a Ph.D.
in Applied Mathematics from the University of Colorado at Denver, and
maintains an active program of research in risk, uncertainty analysis, and
computational statistics techniques.
Mr. Mike Popp is the subject
matter expert for software cost estimation, avionics cost estimating, and
cost risk analysis techniques for the NAVAIR 4.2 Cost Department. During
his 28 year career, he has developed numerous cost estimates for a broad
spectrum of platforms and sensors, and has been leading research into
improving software cost estimation for the past several years. He has a
degree in Industrial Engineering from Virginia Tech, is Level III certified
in Cost Estimating and Program Management, is a certified cost estimator
through the Society of Cost Estimating and Analysis (SCEA), and is the SCEA
2007 National Cost Estimator of the Year for Technical Achievement.
Directions: Driving Directions to
201 12th St
Select "Get Directions" and then input your starting address
Metro:
Blue and Yellow Line to Crystal City
|
|
President:
Jeffrey Moore,
Booz Allen Hamilton
Vice
President:
David Stem,
AFCAA
Program Chair:
Timothy Anderson,
MCR Federal
Membership
Chair:
Michelle Enwright, MITRE Corporation
Secretary:
Meghan Kennedy,
AFCAA
Treasurer:
Christopher Sheng,
Booz Allen Hamilton
IT Chair:
Christopher Sheng, Booz Allen Hamilton
(Acting)
|
|
