Last Updated: September 02, 2010                                                            To suggest a future presentation topic, CLICK HERE

                                                                                               To review presentations from the past year, CLICK HERE

Luncheons

Date: September 15, 2010

Time: 11:30 - 1:00

Location: Technomics,Inc.

Address: 201 12th Street South

                Crystal Gatway North, East Tower, Sixth Floor

                Arlington, VA

Presenters: Christopher Mehl of Omnitech Solutions, Inc., and Mike Popp of NAVAIR 4.2

Topic: Probability Bounds Analysis for S-Curves

Abstract:

"After years of developing point estimates analysts knew were uncertain, the estimating and acquisition community has embraced the concept of viewing a cost estimate as a potential distribution of cost represented by a cumulative distribution function (CDF), commonly called the S-Curve.  Unfortunately, the very thing the S-Curve was intended to counter - the implication of preciseness inherent in a point estimate - has become a preciseness issue about percentile values and levels of risk.  Decision makers, for example, have come to view the 50th percentile as an absolute, and wonder why the number previously thought to be the 50th percentile becomes the 30th percentile when the estimate is updated.  While there are many reasons numbers change, part of the error is inherent in the way the S-Curve is developed.  Ideally, all input distributions in a cost estimate would be derived from reliable data, and would have known shape and parameter values.  In reality, many inputs to an estimate are based on expert opinion and data of unknown relevance, making the distributions for these inputs uncertain.  Understanding this, we can treat the output CDF as an empirical distribution function (EDF), and quantify the associated "type 2," or epistemic, uncertainty.  Utilizing Kolmogorov-Smirnoff and non-parametric quantile bounds, a "P-Box" is developed from which an analyst can now define a range of costs associated with specific levels of risk, or ranges in risk associated with specific costs."

  
Speaker Bio:

Dr. Christopher Mehl is a senior mathematician for Omnitech Solutions, Inc., supporting the NAVAIR 4.2 Cost Department.  He has more than 11 years experience performing strategic research, technical and quantitative analysis in the academic, commercial and government sectors, and has applied a wide variety of mathematical techniques to diverse problems in the intelligence and defense communities.  He has received the DIA Meritorious Civilian Service Medal, DIA Civilian Expeditionary Medal, and the Joint Civilian Service Commendation Award for service in Iraq.  He holds a Ph.D. in Applied Mathematics from the University of Colorado at Denver, and maintains an active program of research in risk, uncertainty analysis, and computational statistics techniques.

Mr. Mike Popp is the subject matter expert for software cost estimation, avionics cost estimating, and cost risk analysis techniques for the NAVAIR 4.2 Cost Department.  During his 28 year career, he has developed numerous cost estimates for a broad spectrum of platforms and sensors, and has been leading research into improving software cost estimation for the past several years.  He has a degree in Industrial Engineering from Virginia Tech, is Level III certified in Cost Estimating and Program Management, is a certified cost estimator through the Society of Cost Estimating and Analysis (SCEA), and is the SCEA 2007 National Cost Estimator of the Year for Technical Achievement.

Directions: Driving Directions to 201 12th St

Select "Get Directions" and then input your starting address

Metro: Blue and Yellow Line to Crystal City

Feel free to bring your own lunch or order a catered lunch ($10 payable at the door).

To RSVP contact Tim Anderson at timothy.p.anderson@aero.org

**Be certain to include the following information:

    First Name

    Last Name

    Company

    E mail Address

    Daytime Phone Number

    Catered Lunch Order  (Yes or No)

    Any Dietary Restrictions or Preferences

    Other comments

Conferences